Cerro Largo vs Progreso

Cerro Largo face Progreso in the Primera División (Clausura - 14) on Thursday 12 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo.

Cerro Largo are 12th with 37 points from 35 games, while Progreso are 15th with 35. That leaves Cerro Largo 2 points ahead.

At home this season Cerro Largo average 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game; on the road Progreso average 0.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. Cerro Largo have kept 9 clean sheets and failed to score 13 times; Progreso have 6 clean sheets and 14 blanks.

Cerro Largo have scored 4 and conceded 6 in their last 5 matches, with 1 going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 2. Progreso have scored 6 and conceded 6 in their last 5 matches, with 1 going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 2.

Cerro Largo come into this fixture with a recent record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, while Progreso have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the same window. Cerro Largo currently sit 12th on 37 points, with Progreso placed 15th on 35 points. Across the last 5 head-to-head meetings, 13 goals have been scored and both teams found the net in 3 of them. Recent head-to-head meetings average 2.6 goals, which supports the Under 3.5 line. The Under 3.5 Goals selection (Under 3.5) is assigned a 81.97% probability at odds of 1.22.

• Progreso have the better recent form (7 pts vs 4 pts from the last 5 matches).
• Cerro Largo have scored 33 goals this season compared with 31 for Progreso.
• Defensively, Cerro Largo have conceded 41 and Progreso have conceded 49.
• League positions: Cerro Largo 12th, Progreso 15th.
• The last 5 H2H meetings average 2.6 goals per game.
• Market rationale: the model leans towards a low-scoring game for Under 3.5.

• Cerro Largo matches average 2.1 total goals this season and Progreso matches 2.3.
• 1 of Cerro Largo's last 5 matches went over 3.5 goals.
• 1 of Progreso's last 5 matches went over 3.5 goals.
• The last 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals.

In the last 5 meetings, Cerro Largo have won 5, Progreso have won 0 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo.